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Economy and logistics market of Russia in 2017-18.: preliminary results and forecasts

25 Jan
2018

Experts GK TELS summed up the preliminary results 2017 and synthesize the forecasts from different financial institutions on the further development of the Russian market. What awaits the participants of the international logistics market of Russia in 2018?

2017 – beyond expectations

the End of 2017 for the Russian economy and its international trade were higher than the original forecasts. The first half of last year has shown rapid growth. In the second half of the year, this trend slowed down considerably compared to the first half of the year, and some experts have even begun to use the term "stagnation". But in comparison to the comparable periods in 2016-17. the speaker is still quite high.

In July, the experts of the International Monetary Fund raised its forecasts regarding the growth of Russia's GDP in 2017 from 1.1% to 1.4%. In September, rating Agency Standard & Poor's and Fitch also increased its expectations regarding growth in the Russian economy in 2017 to 1.8% and 2% respectively.

the Exact end of 2017 is calculated. Ministry of economic development forecasts GDP growth in the past year range from 1.4 to 1.8%, the world Bank put the figure at 1.7%.

the international logistics market of Russia for the first time after a period of decline that began in 2014, in 2017 showed a pronounced recovery. According to preliminary data of customs statistics, in 2017 the import of goods from CIS countries in value terms amounted to 202 283,5 million U.S. dollars and compared to 2016 increased by 24.3%.

According to the Association of sea commercial ports of the Russian Federation, container turnover of Russian ports in 2017 compared to 2016 increased by 15.5% (to 4.62 million TEUs), volume in tons increased by 13% (48,265 million tons).

across the network of JSC "RZD" in 2017 transported 18.9% more containers than in 2016 (3.90 million TEU). Among them: the transit traffic load increased by 59.2% of export is 20.1%, in import of 33.2%.

statistical office of the European Union (Eurostat) has not yet issued the preliminary data for the whole of 2017, but for 11 months of 2017, the road transport market of the European Union to the Russian Federation in comparison with the same period in 2016, increased in physical terms by 14.2% (9983 kt). The export of vehicles from Russia to the EU in physical terms remained at the level of 2016, but it happened primarily due to a reduction of transportation of hydrocarbons, at the same time increased the transport of more expensive goods.

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